My own opinion, but 3D TV sales are only at 1% in homes, that's what I last read in the NY Times
What's coming, 3D viewing screens without the need for glasses - I see that as the real market share - no glasses, no headaches for children.
The largest complaint in home 3D TV for children's shows were "headaches" and the use of glasses among small children. Actual frontal headaches
I've had this subject come up in regards to music videos as some musicians/ bands want 3D music videos, which is very cool, but how many people can actually watch those at this time on their home computer
It's one of things where you have to do a statistical analysis and study for low budget movies. Although cool, does the actual cost of a 3D production exceed potential revenues for small time filmmakers and therefore you operate at a loss
No matter what, for me any way, it's all about content - it doesn't matter if it was shot on 35mm, 16mm, Super 8 or Mini DV
I am always hesitant to invest in "the new" until things settle a bit (but that never seems to occur)
Here are Some Stats Sent to Me by a Western MA filmmaker who is Getting Into 3D - excerpts from a Variety 3D Summit Entertainment:
Content - There have been a total of sixty major theatrical 3D releases since 2005, generating $5.5 billion from 3D screens.
3D Television Channels - Twenty 3D TV channels have launched, including five in the U.S., four in Japan and one each in the UK, France, Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Russia, Czech Republic, Estonia, and Korea.
3D TVs - Screen Digest projects that by 2014, 28% of U.S. households will have a 3D TV and 110 million 3DTVs will be sold worldwide in 2014. North America will lead the way.
3D Blu-ray - Screen Digest projects that in 2014 U.S. consumers will spend $753 million on buying 3D Blu-ray DVDs. If more titles are released this year, regardless of 3DTV sales, that number will go up. 3D Blu-ray discs are backward compatible to 2D displays. Consumers with 3D discs in their collection will eventually buy a 3DTV in order to take advantage of the 3D content that they already own.
Ticket Prices - As for the up-charge for a 3D theater ticket, six of the top ten movies this year were 3D releases. Consumers believe the value is there for top films and they will pay a premium price for a premium experience.
It's a fad. A gimmick. A bit of showbiz ballyhoo they pull out every times sales slump. Back in the 1950s when movies were facing competition from television.... they turned to the gimmick of 3D, same in 1983 when cable television and VCR's were taking money out of Hollywood's pocket. Now, it's the internet that's causing them to pull out this annoying gimmick again.
But I think it's lifespan will be short lived like before. It's really a pretty useless trick that makes bad movies worse and good movies annoying to watch.